Show Executive Summary
The OE economic modelling evaluated 9 possible scenarios based on a combination of the following main scenarios:
• Technology development and deployment scenarios: Optimistic, Central, Pessimistic.
• Potential island of Ireland market share scenarios (local and global): Whale, Shark, Minnow.
There is currently sound quantitative evidence that by 2030 a fully developed island of Ireland OE sector providing a home market and feeding a global market for RE could produce a total Net Present Value (NPV) of around €9 billion and many thousands of jobs to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Irish economies.
It is possible that an island of Ireland wave energy industry meeting the 500MW 2020 target could produce at least 1,431 additional FTE jobs and an NPV of €0.25bn, increasing to 17,000-52,000 FTE jobs and an NPV of between €4-10bn by 2030. This is dependent upon achieving sufficient technology learning rates - most likely encouraged and maintained initially through a form of capital and/or operational subsidy.
Similarly a tidal industry providing 200MW of capacity by 2020 may deliver around 600 FTE jobs and an NPV of €111m, increasing to 8,500-17,000 FTE jobs and an NPV of between €1.5-2.75bn by 2030.